New climate data set for India unveiled by Bengaluru-based Azim Premji University

The average annual maximum temperature will experience an increase of 1.5 degree Celsius by 2057 under ‘the middle of the road’ emission scenario while the more extreme ‘fossil-fueled development’ emission scenario predicts this temperature rise will occur a decade earlier, by 2047.

This is one of the many key findings of the Azim Premji University’s new climate data set for India, which was unveiled on November 17.

According to the Climate Change Projections for India (2021-40) report, the projections examine two IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions and adaptation) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions with heavy fossil fuel reliance).

In other words, the ‘middle of the road’ emission scenario assumes that society will take moderate steps to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, which will lead to moderate effects in the future. The ‘fossil-fueled development’ emission scenario presumes that society will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels for energy, leading to a future with very high emissions and severe impacts.

Another finding is that India’s average summer maximum temperature will have a 1.5-degree Celsius increase by 2043, according to the ‘middle of the road’ emission scenario and by 2041 for the ‘fossil-fueled development’ emission scenario.

Under the low emission scenario, 196 districts in India will experience a summer maximum temperature increase of at least one degree, with 70 districts projected to experience a similar annual maximum temperature change.

“The highest change is expected in Leh at 1.6 degree Celsius for both summer and annual maximum temperatures. The winter minimum temperature is projected to change by 1.5 degree Celsius or more for 139 districts, while 611 districts will see a 1 degree Celsius or more temperature change,” the report states

Similarly, under the high emission scenario, 249 districts will experience an annual maximum temperature change of one degree Celsius or more, and 16 districts, mostly in the Himalayan States, are projected to experience an annual maximum temp change by 1.5 degree Celsius or more with the highest being at Leh at 1.8 degree Celsius.

“517 districts will experience a summer maximum temperature change of one degree Celsius or more, and 17 districts will experience a summer maximum temperature change of 1.5 degree Celsius or more, with the highest being at Leh at 1.7 degree Celsius.The winter minimum temperature is projected to change by 1.5 degree Celsius or more in 162 districts with the highest being 2.2 degree Celsius in Anjaw district of Arunachal Pradesh,” the report added.

With regard to change in precipitation patterns (2021-2040), the report said that the western part of India will experience a significant increase in precipitation, compared to most of the eastern and north-eastern parts of the country.

“Change in precipitation patterns (2021-40), the arid States such as Gujarat and Rajasthan exhibit a higher annual precipitation ranging from 20% to 40% under SSP2-4.5, and a 20% to 50 % change under SSP5-8.5. Under both the scenarios, 24 to 25 districts spread across the coastal States and eastern Himalayas will experience more than 31 degree Celsius summer wet bulb temperature, posing serious threats to human health,” the report said.